The Strategic Plan of the Kremlin for Ukraine October 29, 2016 Analysis Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard 19:20:04 29/10/2016 Nalin.ru One of the frequent complaints about the Kremlin is the accusation of a lack of strategic vision and long-term plan of actions for key national directions. In the actions of the Russian authorities a rapid response (often successful) can be seen to challenges, threats, and problems, but not following a deliberate plan to reach the objectives. However, the recent speech by the Russian President at a meeting of the “Valdai” club – in combination with the political line of the state in reality – indicates that this is not true. Or rather it is not the case. At least in some areas of work. In fact, at “Valdai”, Vladimir Putin, in short comments, revealed the strategy of Russia concerning Ukraine, and it’s really a strategy that is a long-term plan of work, which should lead to the fulfilment of extremely challenging aims. And this strategy does not promise anything good for Ukraine or Ukrainians. Moreover, the situation is even worse than the anti-kremlin configured brainwashed citizens. The Kremlin does not intend to be limited to the destruction of Ukraine as a state at all. It seems like it plans to eliminate the Ukrainian nation as such. And to understand this, it is necessary to listen carefully to what was said by Putin at “Valdai” and look closely at the existing Russian policy towards Ukraine. But first, the full quote of the statement of Vladimir Putin: “However, I consider and have considered that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation. There are individuals of extreme, nationalist views in both Russia and Ukraine, but in general a majority constitute one people, a people sharing a common history and culture, who are very close ethnically. First we were separated and then set against each other. We are partially to blame for that ourselves. Now we are to find a way out of this situation on our own. I am certain that common sense will prevail and we will find a way out.” This quote is particularly interesting – and at first glance contradictory – in the light of the selected vector in the Kremlin’s relationship with Ukraine. Factually, Russia, using the anti-Russian attitude of Kiev, is currently staging the full-scale strategic freezing and breaking of ties with our South-Western neighbour. The destruction of the economic connections, import substitution of Ukrainian suppliers, the elimination of gas transit through Ukraine, etc, – this news comes almost on a daily basis. If suddenly after a few years pro-Russian forces will come to power in Ukraine, nothing will change. The trend will be prolonged, at least because the Russian enterprises will already have been built, the bypassing pipeline will already be launched, and the Ukrainian GTS will finally turn into non-reconstructed junk. Even if this miracle happens and Ukraine will acquire a pro-Russian orientation, she is still doomed to continue on the path to the bottom of degradation. This is the result of the current strategical choice of the Russian leadership, which in a few years will require such great cost that no one will agree to deploy it. At first glance, it is a somewhat strange choice in relation to the those you considered to be not even a brother but much more closer – a part of yourself. However, this contradiction is easily dispelled if you look closely, literally line-by-line at the above quote of Putin. So, point by point translation of Putin’s comments from politician talk to an easily comprehendible format. Russians and Ukrainians are one nation, which was divided, and then set on each other. This means that the Russian leadership agrees with the well-known opinion that the Ukrainian national-political project is artificially, and purposefully designed as an anti-Russian battering ram. The Ukrainians were a part of the Russian people with their regional peculiarities, until in the late 19th-early 20th century, the project of Ukrainian nation-building was launched, which at first formed for them an identity separate from Russia, and as a result everything came to the current situation. However, in spite of that, we are one nation, which will find a way out of the situation on our own. This means that Russia took the course for a principled resolution of the “Ukrainian question” – through the elimination of the Ukrainian national political project, through the blur of Ukrainian identity. The approach is quite logical: if, during a few decades, the artificial formation of identity was successful, so why not try to kick-start the contrary process and eliminate it. Not only Putin, but many other Russian government officials regularly repeat the mantra “Russians and Ukrainians are one nation”. Apparently, in the next decade we will hear this phrase from different people more and more often. Yes, during decades. And what did you expect? The national identity is created over decades and centuries. And it is unlikely that the reverse journey will take much less time. Moreover, especially since here violence and coercion are unacceptable, but a lot of patience and time is needed. And it is precisely by this that the current policy of the Kremlin – breaking ties with Ukraine – is explained. Ukraine is doomed to drink until the bottom of the glass the anti-Russianness of its political project. She is fated to be one more Ruin in its history. And as past experience has shown, this process lasts for decades and produces such darkness and horror that people literally flee from the territory. Something similar, apparently, is predicted for this time. As a result, Ukrainians (at least most of them) will start to jump away from the word “Ukrainian” like from a leper. With it will be associated such bad nightmares and phenomena, and the first stems (the stems only! – further it will be much worse), which can now be observed nowadays in Ukraine, that it’ll become such a stigma that people will start by all means to disown it All this time Russia will stand nearby with open arms, and say, “we are one nation”, and a little bit later will begin to add “Russian nation”. And to accept everyone who will want it inside themselves, and in the Russian people. And then the time will come for Russia to once again return to the territory that reached complete nothingness and degradation. But only the names that will return to it will be historical – Novorossiya and Malorossiya. The brand “Ukraine” will probably remain for Galicia, although it is not for certain. This brand is doomed to such discredit that it is likely to be generally useless for anyone. So, it’s possible you’ll see, in 100-150 years, the Ukrainian nation’s end. And in a couple of centuries the Ukrainian national-political project will become small (a century is nothing by historical standards), an episode in the history of Russia and the Russian people. Will this plan succeed? Time will tell. But judging by the comments of the Russian President, the plan of the Kremlin is a strategic plan, please note, which is designed not even for decades but for centuries – it is exactly like that. Copyright © 2016. All Rights Reserved. Michael Dillon I believe that Malorossiya does not mean Little Russia and is unrelated to the Russian word for small. Instead it originates from unique features of the territory of Ukraine. First, all along shores of the Black Sea were living Greek-speaking people. But the dominant culture of the land was the Turkic speaking Golden Horde who governed the territories from their capital near Kazan. To the south of them in Tmutarakan were the Southern Rus and to the west in Kiev were the Western Rus. In the Turic languages the primary directions were named with colours, therefore the Western Rus were the White Rus and the Southern Rus were the Red Rus. The name White Rus became Belarus in the Russian Language, but in the south where there were lots of Greeks, they used the term Malorus which means the same thing. Males in Greek dialects means white and is the root of words like melon “white fruit” which is the Greek name for an apple, but we adopted it for another white fruit. Nevertheless, Malorossiya is simply the southern dialect translation of the Turkic ethnic name given to them by the Golden Horde. And its meaning is identical to Belorussia. Stavros Hadjiyiannis Oh, it will happen a lot sooner than decades. Within less than ten years I would imagine.