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Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard

21:08:19
13/08/2016 

Politnavigator

The strong statement by Vladimir Putin concerning the sabotage on the Crimean part of the Russian border has forced many to think about the possibility of open hostilities between the two countries. But there will not be war. There will be coercion of neighboring countries to become adequate by the economic means verified by Turkey, and if the West understands the signal sent to him, at this time also by political means.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is known for setting out in a vulgar form the points that officials are too shy to voice, said that it is the current US administration who is preparing for war. It means it is necessary to comply with Clinton, the keynote of her campaign being the threat of Russian aggression.

They tried during all of the summer to lure Russia into war in Donbass. It began on 29th June with a provocation in Debaltsevo. The Ukrainian military and volunteer battalions committed a strange attack on the territory of the DPR, which was quickly repulsed with heavy losses for the attackers. Afterwards an artillery duel began and is still ongoing, which claims new lives daily, both military and civilian.

In parallel, the Ukrainian side completely ignores the Minsk process. The document on the separation of the parties, which was yet to be agreed in July, was not ready until now through the fault of Kiev. The last meeting of the contact group in Minsk in August was in vain. In Donbass the UAF builds military installations, amassing equipment and manpower. The population of the country methodically handled through the media: “separatists” continuously attack, wait for new “Russian aggression”.

Although the Ukrainian side, with a persistence worthy of a better cause, insists that to be at war with Russia, everybody savvy to the details, including in the West, knows that it’s not like that. There is no doubt that at the beginning of full-scale hostilities in Donbass, Ukrainian and Western media will blame Russia, but they will be unable to succeed in taking the necessary decisions at the international level regarding “Russian aggression”.

There is a feeling that at the last moment the puppeteers of the Kiev “authorities” decided to not start. It would be naive to believe that they were stopped by fear of the inevitable large losses of the Ukrainian Army, and of course especially among the civilian population. It’s more likely that they soberly judged that these losses would bring the already unstable positions of Poroshenko & Co to a critical level. And before the elections in the USA, Ukraine will appear not like a scene of “Russian aggression”, but of major social conflict, which the Republicans easily present as the failed policies of the democratic administration in Europe.

That’s why, unexpectedly for many, a plan “B” appeared. A sabotage group in Crimea, quite possibly, was caught not due to its error. Those who were preparing it, deliberately designed it for detection and conflict on the border. They were hoping that the Russians will lose their nerve. Under this scenario “Grad” and other military equipment were amassed in Perekop.

The conflict on the border is exactly this “small victorious war”, which with minimum costs and losses would give the opportunity to divert the attention of the critics from the failed Ukrainian project on “aggressive” Russia.

Should we interpret the strong statements by Putin on this occasion as the fact that the Russian President was caught in a prepared-for-him trap, and is ready to respond to the provocation with force? Let’s hope not.

Putin’s statement means the disavowal of the West’s plans. The Russian President directly appealed to Europe and the USA with a request to calm Kiev.

The Russian President pejoratively called Poroshenko & Co “people who seized power” and “clients”. Let’s add to this the cancellation of the meeting in the “Normandy Format”, and we will get a clear signal of unwillingness to imitate dialogue with puppets and a call for puppeteers to come to their senses.

This does not mean unwillingness to solve the Ukrainian problem through negotiations. Simply these negotiations must be real, rather than a simulation of it.

And something else. It’s difficult not to see the analogy between the death of the Turkey-downed Russian pilot and the deaths of our soldiers in north Crimea. To talk about “a stab in the back” by the Kiev leadership would be ridiculous. After all the blockades of the peninsula encouraged by Poroshenko, and after the infinite aggressive statements of the Ukrainian “president”, it is difficult to accuse him of hypocrisy.

Despite everything we sought to preserve at least some normal relations with Ukraine. Apparently, it has been decided to abandon it. Mikhail Zurabov was removed from the post of Ambassador. According to Putin’s definition, it does not make sense to build relationships with a terroristic State.

Russia will not give a gift to the US and won’t enter into a direct armed conflict with Ukraine, despite past and possible future cross-border provocations. Our country has already worked out on the Turkish example adequate coercion tactics. Erdogan was forced to turn around and apologize, because, having quarreled with Russia, he didn’t receive support from the West. It’s exactly the same situation for Poroshenko.

Is it really possible to expect a letter of apology from the Ukrainian “President”? Of course not. For an explanation of what the script is expected to be in the Kremlin, it is worth to look again at the extravagant Vladimir Zhirinovsky. At his last press conference, Zhirinovsky promised a new coup for Ukraine.

Only if it will really happen, it is unlikely that Putin will call Poroshenko, as he called Erdogan.

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