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Translated by Ollie Richardson & Angelina Siard

16:32:18
06/09/2016

Written by Alexandr Zhilin (head of the Moscow Center for the Study of Applied Problems and a leading Russian military commentator)

 

1. The subject of negotiations has not changed. Did the geostrategic or geopolitical circumstances change?

Japan’s claim by itself to the Soviet Union-Russia was provoked and supported by the US since the time of occupation. In this way, Americans aimed to block the nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles and the Pacific fleet of Russia, and to secure a total domination of the Pacific Ocean Zone. It’s like closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles to the Black Sea fleet.

Now, Russia is strengthening its political influence in the world, and the Pacific Ocean Zone after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there is no ideological barriers for it now. There is a chance to conclude a peace treaty with economic benefits. Besides this, the Japanese need support in defending their interests (capitalist!) in the face of American pressure. Of course, in an Eastern manner, they want to play on the Russian-American contradictions. Russia has huge forest, fuel, ore, and water resources, and a large market in the far East, which is greatly needed by Japan. And Japan has the most advanced technologies and high level of science. In strategic terms, Japan needs to get out from under American influence, like Germany.

2. The peace treaty with Japan – which kind of decision can be made so that none of the parties do not feel slighted and disadvantaged? (how to sign a peace treaty only about Kuril Islands without someone ceding?) What can Russia cede, and can she do it? And about what could Japan compromise on? What is victory and defeat for one and the other side in this context? Which kind of compromise is possible?

The formula of negotiations is unknown. It needs to be developed. I think there will be a number of investment projects and nothing more. It is possible that Japan will get a chance to deploy their capital outside the zone of American influence, i.e. Russia, China, BRICS. The Kuril Islands will not handed over. This is suicide. If there are US banks – we lost.

3. Who does the solution to this issue benefit more?

Mostly Japan. The sources of its resources will be geographically closer. And its economy will be more independent from US bankers and Federal Reserve. Our interests in Japan and in the East are the same as in Germany and Europe.

4. To which point is Japan independent in its decisions, regardless of how she takes them? Is she guided from outside or not?

Japan is not an independent country, like Germany and other European “allies” in NATO. Japan’s debt is more than 2 times its GDP. This is a debt to American banks, etc. Japan works almost entirely on debt. Japan does not need a confrontation with China and Korea. Its Military-Industrial Complex is still insignificant. But if the US wants it, Japan will be sacrificed in Southeast Asia. And they will do it even against Russia. The Japanese know it. But there are also crazy radicals.

P.S.
There is one important indicator. If during the signing of the contracts financial support will be given by the banks of the US and UK, it means we lost by far. If it will be given to an established common bank or bank of BRICS, or even a Chinese one, everybody will be a winner, except the Americans.

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